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What's your prediction???

D.B.Cooper

Active member
Are you gonna make out like a bandit, or feel like you've been robbed by one???  <img title="Confused" alt="Confused" src="https://www.ruralmailtalk.ruralinfo.net/wp-content/sp-resources/forum-smileys/sf-confused.gif" />
 
big joke, we were told at pre count that we would have 8 counters for 22 routes, we have all new subs, they gave them a 20 min course to train them. we asked to work our days off and use our x days so the subs will not lose time. flat out no. well today as I was leaving I found out why. no supervisors will be on site tomorrow, 0ne counter for all the routes!!. contacted stew he said that they are already looking at having the count thrown out.( wont happen) he says the subs will probably end up counting and timing themselves! really? they are delivering priority on sundays, this is unbelievable
 
Considering what has already came early, I'm doubting I'll get the results I want to see. Amazon doesn't deliver their own here though. I was hoping for our 3 aux routes to become full routes. We have three offices across a decent sized city. If they do, I'll be regular by the end of the year. We have 55 full routes as of now. Now I'm hoping to not see anything be cut. Last count the majority of the routes went up 2 hours, some more than 2. I know of a rather large route in my current office that has not been counted in 5 years. It's only a 42k now. I would almost bet it is overburdened, the regular thinks it is too. Only downside for me is there will be no LLV's available for new routes, so I'll be looking for a vehicle should count be decent. A lot of people will be looking for rhd vehicles which will be scarce, I'm sure. I've been casually looking for about a year or so. Not a whole lot around me.  
 
Which stew?  Local?

It were me, I'd be blowing up the DR's phone.

That is absolutely ridiculous.
 
I've been a carrier for a decent amount of time and this is the first count in forever that I'm fairly confident I'll go up. I know, famous last words, but the parcels and accountables on my route have gone up a ton in the 4+ years since the last count on my route (I've opted out until now), while the mail itself has remained steady. Perhaps I'm being recklessly optimistic, but I know the rules and I'm ready to fight for a good count.
 
I'm thinking Saturday will be busy, and Monday will be busy to get all our hopes up and then crash. 

Yeah, no. There were a million flats this week, had to hold over so many stacks and stacks of flats for the next day and the next day and the next day. Never had to do that before. I rarely feel overwhelmed. 
 
Prediction for my route.  it is a 41J - 44:12 with 35 minutes of bank time yet to be added in.  I expect to lose my J day due to "normal fluctuations" of mail volume and work a 44H until I find a job where I don't work 6 days a week.  End of March will be 10 years wasted for me (5 1/2 RCA - 41/2 regular).  17 more to retire but I don't think I will ever get there at the current pace of stupidity by management.

and this is with adding amazon 8 months ago and working for free since then.
 
48-K going to a 43-K , due to overburden cut, no matter what happens, and probably the only carrier here that knows for sure, that is going to happen to my route.
 
Interesting predictions... I wish I knew... I'm thinking they're gonna be unusually, or maybe usually, crooked this go 'round....  just based upon how they've been acting in my neck of the woods... as I've outlined in other threads, they've shown an unwillingness to even concede that we should get credit where it is clearly spelled out that we should get it, like riffling, or Column 1 credit for stuff pulled out of DPS... I think they're smelling blood in the water, and are circling like hungry sharks... or, anyway that's the feeling I've been getting...

We will know very soon...

Good luck to all of those counting!!!  <img title="Wink" alt="Wink" src="https://www.ruralmailtalk.ruralinfo.net/wp-content/sp-resources/forum-smileys/sf-wink.gif" />
 
<blockquote class="spPostEmbedQuote"><strong>humper1va said </strong>
big joke, we were told at pre count that we would have 8 counters for 22 routes, we have all new subs, they gave them a 20 min course to train them. we asked to work our days off and use our x days so the subs will not lose time. flat out no. well today as I was leaving I found out why. no supervisors will be on site tomorrow, 0ne counter for all the routes!!. contacted stew he said that they are already looking at having the count thrown out.( wont happen) he says the subs will probably end up counting and timing themselves! really? they are delivering priority on sundays, this is unbelievable  </blockquote>
One person to count 22 routes ???

If I was a sub (experienced one), I might not know how to count accurately nor how to use a stopwatch/smartphone.

Typical PO crap.  Its not like all the sudden the count snuck up on incompetent mgt.
 
humper1va -- " we asked to work our days off and use our x days so the subs will not lose time. flat out no. "

--  At least manglement go that part right!   Page 13 of the 2018 Mail Count Guide:  The relief carrier is entitled to work his/her scheduled work days during the mail count.

" we were told at pre count that we would have 8 counters for 22 routes" "no supervisors will be on site tomorrow [ Saturday ], 0ne counter for all the [ 22 ] routes!!

--  7 supervisors in your office??  

--  Regular carriers may observe the mail count of their own route on their relief days or on days they are on annual leave status.  ( Also page 13 of the Mail Count Guide ).   Too late now to suggest it, but I'd be observing my route and very vocally telling the relief carrier what to do and look out for.   One counter can't be in 22 places at the same time!  And I'd be sure to tell the relief carrier NOT TO HEAD TO THE STREET until ALL disputes were settled as well as ALL timed events and totals from the counter's tally sheets were matched up with figures on the 4239 worksheet.

--  Hopefully the stew can have the count thrown out based on the "Great Supervisor Sick-Out of 2108"!

--  Sounds as if the stew has other "options" for the count to be tossed.   

--  Page 13 of the Mail Count Guide has a good one at the bottom of the page:  It is unacceptable for either management or rural carriers to take actions that affect the "integrity" of the mail count.  ( the sentence is <strong>even</strong> in bold print! )

--  Probably could also cite bullet #2 - Summary of Mail Count Principles - No changes in carrier work methods, casing equipment, or office procedures at to be made between the date of the local conference and the mail count, unless they were specifically discussed at the conference.   Announcing there would be 8 counters for the 22 routes then only having one on the first day of count seems to be a change.   

--  On the other hand, could be a manglement ploy to have the count thrown out -- then you'd be stuck with old evaluations that probably don't cover the increase in parcels.

"he says the subs will probably end up counting and timing themselves! really?"

--  Don't shut the door on "opportunity" here!   If regulars observe, probably will hear a lot of "Yeah, that looks like a "parcel" to me!"
 
My last mail count was screwed up by weather in 2015; so I'm only to make out better even with the USPS doing their best to manipulate things. 
 
If the subs are counting themselves, might be a good time to change their oil, if pov. Maybe go get gas if in an LLV, whIle they're loading. 
 
An increase in evaluation could be bad as a new development is planned that could push the route to overburdened. No change would be fine with me or a two hour drop would not make me sad either as I would go high J and get a $5000 pay raise and get back to 45 or 46 K as the new development comes on line. The worst case scenario for me would be a 1 hour drop.
 
Gotta be up for me.  With all the Amazons there's no way I can't go up. 

I still have my sheets from the last count.  Mileage and number of boxes is still about the same.  "Average" mail volume is about the same.  I'm going by the number of bundles I take out each day, which is always around 6 to 8, it's been that way for years, and hasn't changed much.  My parcels on the other hand have doubled.  Last count I averaged 38 a day, yesterday I had 83.  I've made a point of checking the number of "scan events" at the end of each day, it's always somewhere around 80 to 90 on average.  Take out for 3 or 4 certs, but add in for 3 or 4 packages that I'll get that don't have a bar code on them, and that gives me a ball park average or 80ish packages a day.  Count in the 16 seconds for scans on those 45 extra packages, load time has doubled because of having to make 2 trips everyday.  All that should add up to a about 60 minutes a week for the extra scans, over 100 minutes a week for the extra packages, and about a half an hour for the extra load time.  That's about 3 extra hours from my current 44K status.  Which actually has me worried.  If I hit 47K, district is going to want to whack me down to 43K, then if we lose Amazon, I'll be an H route...J if I'm lucky.  But for now I don't see how every route in this office won't at least stay the same, or more likely, pick up time.   
 
<blockquote class="spPostEmbedQuote"><strong>OutHereSomewhere said </strong>
Gotta be up for me.  With all the Amazons there's no way I can't go up. 

I still have my sheets from the last count.  Mileage and number of boxes is still about the same.  "Average" mail volume is about the same.  I'm going by the number of bundles I take out each day, which is always around 6 to 8, it's been that way for years, and hasn't changed much.  My parcels on the other hand have doubled.  Last count I averaged 38 a day, yesterday I had 83.  I've made a point of checking the number of "scan events" at the end of each day, it's always somewhere around 80 to 90 on average.  Take out for 3 or 4 certs, but add in for 3 or 4 packages that I'll get that don't have a bar code on them, and that gives me a ball park average or 80ish packages a day.  Count in the 16 seconds for scans on those 45 extra packages, load time has doubled because of having to make 2 trips everyday.  All that should add up to a about 60 minutes a week for the extra scans, over 100 minutes a week for the extra packages, and about a half an hour for the extra load time.  That's about 3 extra hours from my current 44K status.  Which actually has me worried.  If I hit 47K, district is going to want to whack me down to 43K, then if we lose Amazon, I'll be an H route...J if I'm lucky.  But for now I don't see how every route in this office won't at least stay the same, or more likely, pick up time.     </blockquote>
When you say load time has doubled are you referring to two trips to load your vehicle or load once and deliver then come back for the mail that would not fit on the first trip?
 
<blockquote class="spPostEmbedQuote">
<strong>12345 said </strong>

When you say load time has doubled are you referring to two trips to load your vehicle or load once and deliver then come back for the mail that would not fit on the first trip?  

</blockquote>
It takes me at least one trip just to load my parcels.  Then I return for the mail and take it to load.  If I get one day every two weeks that is a one trip loading up, I'm lucky. 

Last time I counted it was something like six or seven minutes for one trip.  Now, it's closer to twelve to fifteen for the two trips. 
 
<blockquote class="spPostEmbedQuote"><strong>OutHereSomewhere said </strong>
<blockquote class="spPostEmbedQuote">
<strong>12345 said </strong>

When you say load time has doubled are you referring to two trips to load your vehicle or load once and deliver then come back for the mail that would not fit on the first trip?  
</blockquote>

It takes me at least one trip just to load my parcels.  Then I return for the mail and take it to load.  If I get one day every two weeks that is a one trip loading up, I'm lucky. 

Last time I counted it was something like six or seven minutes for one trip.  Now, it's closer to twelve to fifteen for the two trips.   </blockquote>
I was not clear with my question. Does all your mail and parcels fit in your vehicle or do you need to deliver then come back to the PO to reload? If so do you get loading time for the second trip?
 
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